Which Miami Condo Buildings Lost Value Since 2022 (And Which Gained the Most)

"Is the Miami condo market up or down?" is the wrong question, and the data makes that unusually clear.

We pulled 70,469 recorded sales and compared the median closed price per square foot in 2022 against 2025 and 2026 closings, building by building. To keep the comparison honest we only kept buildings with at least 20 closed sales in each window — enough transactions that the median reflects the building rather than which three units happened to trade.

Thirty-nine buildings clear that bar. Twelve are down. Twenty-seven are up. And the split runs straight through the middle of individual neighborhoods, which is the actual finding.

The Buildings That Are Down

The Buildings That Are Up

The Pattern Is Not Geographic

If the story were "Brickell is down, Bal Harbour is up," this would be a simpler article. It isn't.

Brickell Key holds both extremes. Carbonell is up 29.5%. Isola is down 9.5% — on the same small island, sharing the same causeway, the same views, the same walk to the same amenities. Whatever separates them, it is not location.

Edgewater does the same thing. Paraiso Bay is up 10.6% and One Paraiso is up 10.2%, while Opera Tower is down 11.2% and Gran Paraiso is down 9.3%. Two of those are in the same master-planned district by the same developer.

Brickell splits four ways. 1010 Brickell is up 21.4%, Skyline up 10.2%, while The Club at Brickell Bay is down 12.7% and Icon Brickell I down 8.3%.

So what actually separates them?

1. Investor concentration

The steepest declines cluster in buildings that were bought heavily by investors for rental yield rather than by owner-occupants. The Club at Brickell Bay, Opera Tower, and Icon Brickell I are all buildings with large studio and one-bedroom counts, high rental turnover, and — critically — a lot of near-identical units.

When forty interchangeable one-bedrooms are listed at once, sellers compete on price against their own neighbors. Buildings with heterogeneous floor plans and more owner-occupants don't generate that kind of internal competition.

2. Unit mix and the small-unit discount

Aventura's Hamptons West, down 21.9%, is the single largest decline in the set. It's an older, large-inventory building where the buyer pool has thinned considerably. Compare it to 2000 Williams Island — same submarket, up 20.6%. A 42-point spread inside one neighborhood, driven by product, condition, and who is shopping for it.

3. Where the 2022 comparison starts

Some of these declines are less about weakness now and more about how hot the 2022 print was. Buildings that were the primary target of the 2021-22 investor rush set a high 2022 median, and measuring from a peak makes ordinary normalization look like a fall. Paramount Miami Worldcenter, down 9.6%, closed a very large number of units into that window.

4. Carrying costs

The buildings holding value best tend to be those where owners aren't being squeezed out by the cost of ownership. Since 2022, Florida condo economics have been reshaped by insurance repricing and by the milestone inspection and structural reserve requirements that followed Surfside. Buildings that funded reserves early absorbed it. Buildings that deferred are now issuing special assessments — and an assessment is a direct, visible deduction from what a buyer will pay.

This is the mechanism most sellers underestimate. A $40,000 assessment doesn't reduce your sale price by $40,000; it reduces it by $40,000 plus the discount buyers apply for uncertainty about whether more is coming.

What This Means If You Own

If you own in one of the declining buildings, the useful question is whether the cause is fixable. Investor saturation and unit-mix problems are structural — they don't resolve because the market improves. Assessment overhang does resolve, once the work is done and paid for, and buildings often re-rate upward afterward.

If you're deciding whether to sell, look at how many units in your own line are currently listed. That number predicts your outcome better than any neighborhood forecast.

What This Means If You're Buying

The declining list is not a list of bad buildings. It's a list of buildings where the price has already adjusted — which, for a buyer with a long horizon and no need to flip, is the opposite of a warning.

The genuinely useful screen is this: a building that fell because it was over-owned by investors in 2022 may now be reasonably priced. A building that fell because it has a structural bill coming and hasn't paid it yet is a different proposition entirely. The distinction lives in the association's financials and reserve study, not in the price history.

Ask for the SIRS, the reserve schedule, the assessment history, and the minutes of the last four board meetings. Then compare the number to this table.

Methodology and Limits

Median closed price per square foot from 70,469 recorded sales, comparing calendar-year 2022 against 2025 and 2026 closings. Buildings need at least 20 closed sales in each window to appear, which is why this covers 39 buildings rather than several hundred — most buildings simply don't transact enough for a median to mean anything.

Three deliberate exclusions worth naming:

• Pre-construction buildings are excluded. Where a tower's 2022 "sales" are developer contract closings and its recent sales are resales, the two numbers measure different things. Waldorf Astoria shows a +97% move on that basis; it reflects pre-construction price escalation, not resale appreciation, so it's out.
• Small samples are excluded, even dramatic ones. Fisher Island's Bayview shows -67% on five recorded 2022 sales. Five sales is not a market.
• Generic building names get extra scrutiny. "Bayview" exists in both Fisher Island and South Beach, and generic names are the most common source of cross-building data contamination in any MLS-derived dataset.

Median price per square foot is a blunt instrument. It doesn't adjust for floor, view, line, or renovation, and a building whose recent sales skewed to lower floors will look weaker than it is. Use this to decide what to investigate, not to price a specific unit.

Related Reading

• Miami Condo Price Per Square Foot: Every Building Ranked
• Miami Condo HOA Fees, Highest to Lowest
• Miami Condo Market Report — July 2026

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Data from 70,469 recorded sales through August 2026. Browse every Miami condo building | Contact us