Miami Market Report 2026: Trophy Neighborhoods at the Mid-Year Mark

Miami's luxury market in mid-2026 is not one market — it's two. Where land is scarce and almost nothing new is being built, prices are holding or climbing. Where towers keep delivering, inventory has piled up and buyers have the leverage. That single dynamic — supply — explains almost every neighborhood story below.

This report is built from closed MLS sales over the trailing twelve months (compared with the prior twelve) plus current active inventory, as of June 2026. We deliberately lead with median price per square foot, the cleanest apples-to-apples value measure, and we flag where a number reflects the mix of what sold rather than a true market move (more on that in the methodology note at the end).

Miami-Dade at a glance

Across all of Miami-Dade, the median condo closed at roughly $389 per square foot ($388K) over the last year — up about +5.7% year-over-year, with sellers collecting 95% of list price. Single-family homes sit near $393 per square foot ($650K median), essentially flat on a per-foot basis but up ~4% on median price as the mix tilts larger.

So the metro headline is modest, healthy appreciation — but the metro average hides enormous spread. Condos trade anywhere from ~$390/sqft in the broad market to $2,000+/sqft on Fisher Island. The interesting story is the divergence.

The 2026 thesis: a supply story

Two forces are pulling Miami's trophy areas apart:

• Supply-constrained, low-construction enclaves — Coconut Grove, South of Fifth, Key Biscayne — have very little new product. Inventory is tight (4–6 months of supply), and prices are firm to rising.
• New-construction corridors — Sunny Isles Beach, Brickell, Edgewater — keep absorbing tower deliveries. Inventory has climbed to 9–18 months of supply, and per-foot prices have softened modestly even as the addresses stay desirable.

A useful rule of thumb: under ~6 months of supply favors sellers; over ~10 favors buyers. Here's where each trophy area sits today.

And here's the price hierarchy — median condo price per square foot, trailing twelve months, against the ~$389 metro average:

Trophy areas at a glance (condos)

*Fisher Island and Sunny Isles year-over-year per-foot figures are distorted by the mix of what closed (a handful of ultra-luxury sales on Fisher Island; new-tower delivery cycles in Sunny Isles), so we report price levels rather than a misleading percentage. See the methodology note below.

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Fisher Island — the ceiling of the market

Fisher Island remains in a category of one: a private, ferry-only island where the median condo trades around $2,180 per square foot and individual residences close in the $7–20M+ range. Only about two dozen units change hands in a year, so any single year-over-year percentage is dominated by which trophy units happened to sell — we don't put a number on it.

What's real: demand at the very top is intact, sellers are still collecting ~93% of ask, and with only ~34 active listings the island never sees a true glut. If you're shopping here, you're price-discovering one-off trophies, not comparing a stack of similar units.

South of Fifth — the resilient blue chip

South of Fifth (SoFi), the southern tip of South Beach, is the mainland's most expensive condo enclave at ~$1,478/sqft and a $2.55M median. Per-foot pricing is essentially flat year-over-year (−2%) — and critically, supply is tight at ~5 months. Buildings like Continuum, Apogee and Murano hold value because there is almost no new construction and demand for walkable, beachfront ultra-luxury is structural.

The lower ~93% sale-to-list is simply the reality of the $3M+ tier, where negotiation is normal. SoFi is the definition of a neighborhood that holds its value through cycles.

Bal Harbour — softening at the high end

Bal Harbour's condos (the St. Regis, Oceana, the Ritz-Carlton Residences) run ~$980/sqft with a $1.80M median, down ~4–9% year-over-year as the luxury oceanfront tier digests inventory (~10 months of supply). Single-family homes here are extraordinarily rare and trade in the $20M+ band when they appear. Buyers at this level have time and leverage right now; sellers are meeting the market.

Key Biscayne — 2026's standout

If one trophy area is unambiguously strengthening, it's Key Biscayne. Condos are up ~+5% per foot to ~$871/sqft ($1.30M median) on healthy volume, and single-family homes are up double digits — roughly +12% per foot to a $4.1M median. Supply is tight (~5.7 months), and sellers are getting 95% of ask.

The island's appeal — gated feel, top schools, a 15-minute drive to Brickell — combined with essentially fixed supply is exactly the recipe that produces appreciation while the broader condo market flattens.

Coconut Grove — a tale of two products

The Grove is the clearest example of the supply thesis, and it splits sharply by product type:

• Homes are hot: up ~+22% per foot ($882/sqft, $1.89M median) on strong volume (~290 sales) — the most reliable up-trend in this report.
• Condos are soft: −8% per foot ($865/sqft) as a wave of new boutique condos delivered into the market.

Yet the Grove still has the tightest overall supply of any trophy area — 4 months — which tells you the underlying demand is fierce. For house hunters this is a seller's market; for condo buyers, there's finally some selection and negotiating room in a neighborhood that rarely offers either.

Edgewater — new-supply pressure

Edgewater has been one of Miami's busiest delivery corridors, and it shows: ~$656/sqft (−4.6% per foot), a $710K median (down double digits as smaller new units dominate sales), and ~9 months of supply. Sellers still get 95% of ask, but buyers have real choice here. For value-seekers who want new construction and bay proximity a notch below Brickell pricing, Edgewater is one of the best-supplied trophy-adjacent markets in the city.

Sunny Isles Beach — the buyer's market

Sunny Isles carries the highest months of supply in this report (~17.5) — the direct result of years of ultra-luxury tower deliveries (Acqualina, Porsche Design, Armani, Bentley). The median condo sits near $623/sqft ($945K), but the year-over-year per-foot figure is unreliable: the prior year was heavy with brand-new high-floor closings at very high per-foot prices, so this year's more resale-weighted mix looks sharply lower without the typical resale unit actually dropping that much. The honest read: abundant inventory, clear negotiating leverage for buyers, and a wide price range depending on building and floor.

Brickell — liquid, deep, and cooling gently

Brickell is the engine room — by far the most-traded condo market here (640 closings in the trailing year), which makes its numbers the most statistically reliable. Pricing is **$616/sqft** ($611K median), down a modest ~2% per foot, with sellers still collecting 95% of ask. But inventory has built to ~15 months of supply, firmly a buyer's market. For buyers, Brickell in 2026 offers the rare combination of blue-chip location, enormous selection, and genuine negotiating room.

What it means for buyers and sellers

The throughline for 2026: location prestige and price direction have decoupled. A neighborhood can be elite and a buyer's market at the same time, purely because of how much is being built. Read supply first, address second.

Frequently asked questions

What is the most expensive neighborhood in Miami per square foot? Fisher Island, at roughly $2,180 per square foot for condos in the trailing twelve months — far above the next tier, South of Fifth ($1,478/sqft) and Bal Harbour ($980/sqft).

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Miami in 2026? Both, depending on where. Metro-wide, condo inventory sits around 13 months of supply — a buyer's market on average. But supply-constrained areas like Coconut Grove (4 months) and South of Fifth (5 months) remain seller's markets, while Sunny Isles (17.5) and Brickell (14.8) strongly favor buyers.

Are Miami condo prices going up or down? Metro-wide, condo prices are up about +5.7% per square foot year-over-year. But trophy submarkets diverge: Key Biscayne is up, while new-construction-heavy areas like Edgewater and Brickell are down a few percent per foot as supply has grown.

Which Miami neighborhood is appreciating the fastest in 2026? Among trophy areas with reliable volume, Key Biscayne stands out — condos up ~5% and homes up double digits per foot — and Coconut Grove single-family homes are up roughly +22% per square foot, the strongest reliable trend in this report.

Methodology & data notes

All figures are computed from closed Miami MLS sales over the trailing twelve months ending June 2026, compared with the prior twelve months for year-over-year changes, plus current active listings for inventory and months-of-supply. "Months of supply" is active listings divided by the trailing monthly sales rate. We report medians (not averages) to reduce the impact of outliers.

Two honest caveats: (1) in very thin or episodic-luxury markets — Fisher Island, the top of Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles' new-tower cycles — a single year's median can swing on the mix of what closed rather than a true price move, so we present price levels and decline to print a misleading percentage there. (2) Transaction-count comparisons are not reported, because our historical coverage deepens over time and would overstate volume growth. Price-per-foot and sale-to-list figures are robust to both effects.